Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:29:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8372…1b54 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$4
other 24% −$1
politics 21% $0
sports 13% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -2.0% -11.3% 29% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 12 -2.6% -11.8% 17% 0% -10.8%
all 43 -1.7% -11.1% 26% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage273d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $30 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $6 −$1 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $31 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $8 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $34 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $25 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $13 −$2 -16%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Oct 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 -9%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 01 $15 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $18 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 27 $27 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $3 $0 -15%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $10 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $20 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $30 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $26 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $15 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $19 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $34 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $30 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $9 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 85¢ $8 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 65¢ $34 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $31 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 55¢ $9 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 55¢ $3 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 55¢ $12 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 31d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 93¢ $4 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 16¢ $6 35d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 16¢ $4 35d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 19¢ $6 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.28 · official $29.28 (match) · 108 history records