Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:53:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8372…bd39 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized +$1 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%31W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$15
other 33% +$6
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 40% -12.4%
≤30d 77 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 40% -12.4%
≤90d 77 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 40% -12.4%
all 77 -10.5% -19.0% 40% 40% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 40% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 31% -20.8%
15% -33.8% 29% -28.4%
20% -40.3% 23% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses31 / 46
Open positions7
Markets (closed)77 / 84
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +139%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$31 +491%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.01 · official $22.01 (match) · 171 history records