Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8371…049c sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate55%135W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$48
14 days−$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$12
weather 5% +$1
other 4% −$6
crypto 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 49% -1.8%
≤30d 245 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 40% -7.8%
≤90d 245 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 40% -7.8%
all 245 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 40% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 40% -7.8%
10% -20.9% 34% -16.7%
15% -28.5% 28% -24.7%
20% -35.5% 24% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses135 / 110
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)245 / 247
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 62¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+6%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? No 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BIG 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 paiN 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 73¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins 47¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Colorado Rockies 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Las Vegas Aces 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Las Vegas Aces 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? No 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) VfB Stuttgart 69¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Angels 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 68¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $2 +$2 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $14 +$10 +68%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$5 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $12 +$1 +12%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 -22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +89%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $2 $0 -8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$29 +72%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$4 +185%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $84 +$49 +58%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$3 +170%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$5 +245%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $54 −$52 -96%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$1 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +42%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$2 +41%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $55 −$20 -36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$4 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $3 46m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $3 47m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $8 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $14 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 90¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $8 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $8 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 65¢ $3 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 99¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 14¢ $1 3h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $2 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $2 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $4 4h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Curaçao 35¢ $2 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 74¢ $4 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $4 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $4 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 63¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $3 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $12 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.48 · official $7.48 (match) · 624 history records