Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8371…9d88 world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate39%22W / 35L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$8
other 22% +$1
politics 21% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 62% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 22 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 22 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 5% -7.9%
all 57 +1.4% -8.2% 39% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.0% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.0% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.12 per $1 lost it wins $3.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses22 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage306d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $6 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $47 +$3 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $78 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $4 +$6 +169%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 02 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 19 $7 $0 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in August? Sep 02 $38 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $53 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 20h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $5 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $5 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $52 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $7 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.10 · official $53.10 (match) · 189 history records