Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x836f…906e world 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$34,825 (+4%) realized +$23,189 · open +$11,636
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate96%103W / 4L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$5,556per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$240,932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,047
7 days+$2,734
14 days+$3,649
30 days+$10,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$29,038
politics 13% +$3,208
other 3% +$848
economics 1% +$186
sports 0% −$63
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.6% -7.1% 97% 3% -6.7%
≤30d 58 +1.5% -8.1% 93% 7% -6.7%
≤90d 89 +3.7% -6.2% 96% 11% -5.5%
all 107 +3.4% -6.4% 96% 9% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 9% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 3% -14.8%
15% -23.6% 1% -23.0%
20% -31.1% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$663 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.14 per $1 lost it wins $9.14
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$240,932
Realized+$23,189
Unrealized+$11,636
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses103 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions41
Markets (closed)107 / 148
History coverage124d
Avg bet$5,556
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $66,821 $70,129 +$3,308 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $25,453 $28,267 +$2,814 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $26,150 $26,592 +$442 (+2%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 97¢ $13,929 $15,569 +$1,640 (+12%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $13,014 $13,596 +$582 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 84¢ $7,480 $8,742 +$1,262 (+17%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $7,947 $8,235 +$287 (+4%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7,452 $7,448 −$4 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $6,639 $6,906 +$267 (+4%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $6,045 $6,307 +$262 (+4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $5,201 $5,602 +$401 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5,255 $5,305 +$50 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $4,726 $4,811 +$84 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4,270 $4,294 +$24 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $3,191 $3,211 +$20 (+1%)
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $2,595 $2,648 +$53 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,572 $2,635 +$63 (+2%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2,568 $2,577 +$9 (+0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,917 $2,004 +$87 (+5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 86¢ 88¢ $1,959 $1,984 +$25 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $1,846 $1,822 −$24 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,738 $1,776 +$38 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $1,345 $1,370 +$26 (+2%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,249 $1,261 +$12 (+1%)
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,120 $1,130 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Jun 17 $4,131 +$30 +1%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $3,648 +$87 +2%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June? Jun 16 $3,779 +$25 +1%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 16 $997 +$4 +0%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 16 $195 +$2 +1%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $3,005 +$5 +0%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $12,520 +$71 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $2,517 +$75 +3%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $1,651 +$38 +2%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $5,328 +$69 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $3,676 +$169 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $7,373 +$443 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $2,658 +$138 +5%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $5,879 +$12 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $559 +$10 +2%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,804 +$14 +1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6,915 +$580 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3,585 +$276 +8%
Will Larry David attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $189 −$68 -36%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $849 +$89 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $313 +$26 +8%
Will Bad Bunny attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $57 +$3 +5%
Will Lady Gaga attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $54 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,741 +$97 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1,071 +$27 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,594 +$78 +5%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $7,967 +$291 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $711 +$30 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $3,397 +$28 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $455 +$14 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $399 +$70 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $2,088 +$74 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,250 +$192 +8%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $5,487 +$134 +2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $10,001 +$307 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? Jun 09 $2,260 −$314 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2,996 +$451 +15%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $235 +$4 +2%
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in May? Jun 04 $680 +$15 +2%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 04 $670 +$34 +5%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $1,586 +$18 +1%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $64 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $888 +$16 +2%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in May 2026? Jun 01 $218 +$14 +6%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in May 2026? Jun 01 $558 +$17 +3%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in May 2026? Jun 01 $624 +$13 +2%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May 2026? Jun 01 $725 +$8 +1%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? Jun 01 $3,815 +$48 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $74,202 +$4,036 +5%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in May 2026? Jun 01 $1,172 +$20 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $148 2m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $669 6m
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $238 7m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 11m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 11m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $229 11m
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 20m
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 44m
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 1h
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $519 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $98 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,225 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $112 2h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $380 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $9 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $240,932.23 · official $240,930.53 (match) · 1910 history records