Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
83 0x836f…e56c sports 721 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate84%605W / 114L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$72
14 days+$89
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$20
other 9% −$83
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +2.7% -7.1% 95% 16% -7.0%
≤30d 420 -0.6% -10.1% 89% 14% -9.6%
≤90d 719 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 18% -9.8%
all 719 +0.2% -9.4% 84% 18% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 18% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 9% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 6% -26.3%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$23 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses605 / 114
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)719 / 721
History coverage65d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $32 $34 +$3 (+8%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 17 $37 +$3 +7%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $35 +$5 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $39 +$1 +3%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $37 +$3 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $38 +$2 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 +$7 +23%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $38 +$2 +6%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $34 +$6 +18%
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Jun 16 $36 +$4 +12%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $38 +$2 +4%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $37 +$3 +8%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $39 +$1 +3%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $34 +$6 +18%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $37 +$3 +7%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
ITF Los Angeles: Kristina Penickova vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 12 $36 +$4 +11%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexandra Vagramov vs Veronica Miroshnichenko Jun 12 $35 +$5 +13%
ITF Martos: Emile Hudd vs Joao Domingues Jun 12 $37 +$3 +9%
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Kenta Miyoshi Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
ITF San Gregorio: Dunja Maric vs Nadia Podoroska Jun 12 $36 +$4 +12%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
ITF Martos: Alberto Barroso Campos vs Pablo Perez Ramos Jun 12 $37 +$3 +7%
ITF Nice: Oana Georgeta Simion vs Jenny Lim Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
ITF Messina: Gabriele Piraino vs Marcel Zielinski Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $38 +$2 +5%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs John Echeverria Jun 12 $39 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $39 +$1 +3%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $38 +$2 +6%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $31 +$8 +25%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $37 +$3 +8%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Jun 12 $38 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 94¢ $37 57m
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $38 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 88¢ $35 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 98¢ $39 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $32 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 97¢ $39 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 95¢ $38 2h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 93¢ $37 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 95¢ $38 5h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 94¢ $38 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $33 25h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 84¢ $34 25h
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Gonzalo Bueno 89¢ $36 26h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 95¢ $38 26h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Guido Justo 98¢ $4 29h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 93¢ $1 29h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 93¢ $13 29h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 93¢ $13 29h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 93¢ $9 29h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 97¢ $39 31h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $40 32h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 95¢ $38 33h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 96¢ $28 33h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 96¢ $10 33h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 99¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 99¢ $38 2d
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 92¢ $37 2d
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 97¢ $39 2d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 93¢ $37 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.20 · official $39.20 (match) · 1551 history records