Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x836d…c977 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$6
world 39% −$10
sports 12% −$20
finance 3% −$6
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 26 -0.9% -10.3% 19% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 33 -3.3% -12.5% 21% 0% -10.5%
all 43 -4.0% -13.1% 26% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 5% -10.8%
10% -21.4% 5% -19.4%
15% -29.0% 5% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage526d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 −$1 -5%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $63 +$5 +8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $33 −$2 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $38 −$2 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $42 −$3 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $68 −$6 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $64 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $12 $0 -4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $437 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $447 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $21 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $13 −$11 -87%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Missouri State vs. UIC Feb 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Troy vs. Arkansas State Feb 16 $3 +$6 +245%
Will Darius Garland win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest? Feb 15 $7 $0 -1%
Drake vs. Illinois State Feb 13 $3 +$2 +85%
UTSA vs. Wichita State Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Jan 22 $6 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $13 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $17 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $30 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $29 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $31 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $17 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $14 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records