Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x836b…32a0 crypto 936 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$623 (-1%) realized −$623 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%460W / 476L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$101
14 days−$506
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,373
sports 0% −$288
other 0% −$76
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -9.8% -18.4% 50% 50% -16.2%
≤30d 81 -10.7% -19.2% 53% 51% -23.2%
≤90d 124 -3.8% -13.0% 52% 50% -20.7%
all 936 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 46% -11.0%
10% -21.4% 41% -19.5%
15% -29.0% 37% -27.3%
20% -35.9% 32% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$71 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$623
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses460 / 476
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)936 / 936
History coverage231d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 936 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $90 −$56 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$44 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$19 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $123 −$96 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $80 +$44 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$62 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$8 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $175 +$149 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$74 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $23 +$16 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $68 −$46 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$18 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$22 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$34 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$26 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $48 −$46 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $43 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$9 +91%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$40 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $38 −$31 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $29 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 10 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $148 +$128 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $71 +$16 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $71 +$15 +20%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 08 $48 +$37 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$23 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$11 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$43 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $58 +$50 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $43 +$40 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $44 +$40 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $36 +$8 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $123 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $43 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $33 3d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 39¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $72 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $175 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $38 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $39 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $68 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2412 history records