Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:49:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8369…0b8b world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 539d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%20W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$9
sports 20% −$8
other 19% −$1
politics 11% −$3
finance 2% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 22 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 5% -8.6%
≤90d 44 -4.3% -13.4% 41% 2% -9.4%
all 51 -7.4% -16.2% 39% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 4% -9.7%
10% -24.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -31.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

539d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses20 / 31
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage539d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $27 +$3 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 +$5 +30%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $140 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $75 −$2 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $83 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $59 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $76 +$3 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $21 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $47 −$3 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $40 −$2 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $3 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $39 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $22 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $287 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $2 $0 +7%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $287 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $289 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $164 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $42 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 60°F or below on May May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Woke" at CPAC conference on Saturday? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Micky Arison make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 21 $3 +$1 +21%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Feb 18 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $24 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $25 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $19 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $11 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $27 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $24 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $24 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $2 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $23 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $25 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $11 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $24 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $16 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $28 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $8 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $31 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $38 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.87 · official $50.64 (match) · 186 history records