Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
83 0x8367…2a2a crypto 673 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,259 (-5%) realized −$9,258 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%637W / 136L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$875now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,034
7 days−$8,824
14 days−$8,731
30 days−$8,731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$369
other 5% +$399
sports 2% +$290
world 1% +$139
politics 0% +$356
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 143 +18.2% +6.9% 28% 17% -52.3%
≤30d 147 +18.0% +6.8% 30% 18% -50.1%
≤90d 149 +20.5% +9.1% 31% 19% -48.2%
all 773 +6.0% -4.1% 82% 7% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 7% -14.1%
10% -13.3% 4% -22.3%
15% -21.7% 4% -29.8%
20% -29.4% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$122 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$875
Realized−$9,258
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses637 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)773 / 673
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$267
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 773 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 86¢ 86¢ $731 $727 −$4 (-1%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 66¢ $102 $113 +$11 (+11%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 36¢ $43 $36 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $54 −$114 -210%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 22? Jun 23 $33 −$24 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 8PM ET Jun 23 $237 −$330 -139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 20? Jun 23 $224 −$230 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$8 -133%
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025? Jun 23 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 +$33 +2337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 6AM ET Jun 23 $0 +$1,289 +9990869%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 10AM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $211 +$77 +36%
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30? Jun 23 $284 −$282 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 2AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Cavaliers Jun 23 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $2,376 −$2,376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 3AM ET Jun 23 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 11AM ET Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 4PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 2AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$14 -405%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 5? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season? Jun 23 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$24 -584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 5AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$46 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $0 +$46 +34315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$53 -151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $6 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $4 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $4 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $2 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $0 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $2 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $7 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $1 0m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $4 1m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $103 13m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $83 15m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $190 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $9 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $9 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $9 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $8 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $61 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $444 16m
Ghana to score first vs. England? BUY No 98¢ $196 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $19 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $192 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $875.29 · official $875.59 (match) · 3500 history records