Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

83 0x8366…ef12 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$229 (+30%) realized +$228 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%6W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$75per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$37

7 days+$7

14 days−$2

30 days−$2

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)-1.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+30.7%	+18.3%	83%	83%	-8.6%
≤30d	9	+8.4%	-1.9%	67%	67%	-9.8%
≤90d	9	+8.4%	-1.9%	67%	67%	-9.8%
all	9	+8.4%	-1.9%	67%	67%	-9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.9%	67%	-9.8%
10%	-11.3%	67%	-18.5%
15%	-19.9%	67%	-26.3%
20%	-27.7%	44%	-33.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 61% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$38 vs −$77 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.99 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$37

Realized+$228

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses6 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)9 / 10

History coverage11d

Avg bet$75

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	69¢	$36	$37	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$257	−$220	-86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$178	+$79	+44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$118	+$61	+52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$74	+$43	+58%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$43	+$31	+72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$13	+45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 09	$8	−$8	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 09	$2	+$2	+91%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$37	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	11¢	$37	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	72¢	$257	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$178	9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	91¢	$178	9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$118	10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$74	32h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$43	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$43	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$30	4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	38¢	$8	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$2	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$2	11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$2	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.21 · official $37.21 (match) · 18 history records