Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x8365…ff4f world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-1%) realized −$270 · open +$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$756per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days−$370
14 days−$274
30 days−$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$491
crypto 24% +$336
tech 23% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.2% -15.1% 50% 50% -22.0%
≤30d 4 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 50% -16.6%
≤90d 4 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 50% -16.6%
all 4 +2.7% -7.1% 75% 50% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 50% -16.6%
10% -16.0% 0% -24.6%
15% -24.1% 0% -31.9%
20% -31.5% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$500 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$240
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage43d
Avg bet$756
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 78¢ $380 $620 +$240 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 29 $1,827 −$500 -27%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 27 $864 +$130 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $523 +$96 +18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 04 $184 +$9 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $297 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $705 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $2 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $285 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $289 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $347 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $299 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $272 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $224 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 96¢ $193 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $184 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $47 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $114 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $132 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $112 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $103 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $6 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $6 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $7 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 88¢ $2 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 39¢ $732 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $2 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $1 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $9 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $40 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $6 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.00 · official $620.00 (match) · 79 history records