Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8365…3c30 crypto 24 markets active 6d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+5%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -30.1% -36.8% 33% 0% -27.5%
≤30d 24 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 21% -8.7%
≤90d 24 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 21% -8.7%
all 24 +3.1% -6.7% 46% 21% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 21% -8.7%
10% -15.7% 17% -17.4%
15% -23.8% 17% -25.4%
20% -31.3% 12% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage17d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 25 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 25 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 25 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 25 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 25 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 25 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 25 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $0 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records