Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x835f…be6c crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+6%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$23
other 14% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 68% 64% -6.4%
≤30d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 68% 64% -6.4%
≤90d 25 +9.2% -1.2% 68% 64% -6.4%
all 25 +9.2% -1.2% 68% 64% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 64% -6.4%
10% -10.6% 64% -15.4%
15% -19.3% 56% -23.6%
20% -27.2% 40% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$26 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$43 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $78 −$58 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $16 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $146 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $41 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $74 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records