Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:45:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x835e…1631 politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%3W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 79% −$4
other 19% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.0% -15.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -5.0% -14.1% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 12 -5.0% -14.1% 17% 0% -9.7%
all 15 -4.0% -13.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses3 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage245d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $199 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -19%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $178 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 29 $160 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? May 29 $210 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $16 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Oct 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 4h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 6h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 15h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 19h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 22h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 31h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 33h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 41h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 42h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 2d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 2d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $158 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 3d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $210 75d
Will Max Greyserman win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $160 77d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $16 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $16 182d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $19 189d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $19 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records