Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

83 0x835e…c209 other 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL −$13 (-3%) realized −$107 · open +$94

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day38.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+10.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	+21.8%	+10.2%	33%	33%	-11.6%
≤30d	9	+21.8%	+10.2%	33%	33%	-11.6%
≤90d	9	+21.8%	+10.2%	33%	33%	-11.6%
all	9	+21.8%	+10.2%	33%	33%	-11.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover38.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+10.2%	33%	-11.6%
10% ← realistic here	-0.3%	33%	-20.1%
15%	-10.0%	33%	-27.8%
20%	-18.8%	33%	-34.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 91% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$23 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$132

Realized−$107

Unrealized+$94

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 12

History coverage1d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day38.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	2¢	10¢	$22	$117	+$95 (+428%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-12%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$10	+$12	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 21	$77	−$56	-72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	Jun 21	$173	−$44	-25%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$10	+$24	+237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 21	$5	−$5	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$16	−$16	-100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$9	−$9	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 21	$29	+$97	+337%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	2¢	$23	1m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	30¢	$23	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$8	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$13	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$21	51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	19¢	$14	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$42	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	SELL Up	13¢	$1	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$5	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Up	14¢	$11	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$16	58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Up	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	SELL Down	47¢	$65	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Down	24¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$13	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	SELL Down	44¢	$19	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5PM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$27	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$62	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	SELL Down	33¢	$63	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	17¢	$13	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.61 · official $131.61 (match) · 44 history records