Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x835e…c7d9 sports 136 markets active 3d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%90W / 46L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$3
other 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 2% −$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.6% -25.4% 43% 43% -19.0%
≤30d 41 -8.2% -16.9% 61% 44% -15.1%
≤90d 131 -0.6% -10.0% 66% 43% -9.8%
all 136 +0.8% -8.8% 66% 43% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 43% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 24% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 14% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses90 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage134d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -30%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 $0 +19%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $1 +$1 +65%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 19? May 26 $1 $0 +32%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $1 $0 +12%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $2 −$1 -58%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 21 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +44%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $3 $0 -5%
Will Bangladesh win? May 19 $1 $0 +9%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $2 +$2 +79%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $4 +$1 +14%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $2 $0 +17%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $5 $0 -2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will Punjab Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1 $0 -8%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $3 −$2 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 71¢ $1 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 96¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 64¢ $1 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 80¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 100¢ $1 7d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 77¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 3? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 14d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $1 16d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 16d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 83¢ $1 16d
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 16d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 73¢ $1 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $1 18d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 57¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 458 history records