Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x835c…a5ee other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,832 (+15%) realized +$9,261 · open −$1,429
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$2,521per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$10,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,057
7 days−$2,091
14 days−$2,834
30 days+$8,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2,143
sports 27% −$6,405
politics 15% +$8,145
world 15% +$3,307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.2% -6.7% 50% 50% -20.8%
≤30d 19 +24.8% +12.9% 63% 63% +9.6%
≤90d 19 +24.8% +12.9% 63% 63% +9.6%
all 19 +24.8% +12.9% 63% 63% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.9% 63% +9.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.1% 53% -0.9%
15% -7.8% 53% -10.5%
20% -16.8% 53% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,757) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,970 vs −$2,146 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$10,498
Realized+$9,261
Unrealized−$1,429
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage17d
Avg bet$2,521
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $7,587 $7,519 −$68 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 40¢ $4,340 $2,979 −$1,361 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4,297 +$3,052 +71%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,333 −$1,995 -86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,850 −$2,821 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,247 +$1,601 +128%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $4,128 −$4,080 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,047 +$2,153 +105%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,226 −$2,206 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,824 −$1,813 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,038 +$361 +18%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,086 +$2,914 +140%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,890 +$3,812 +202%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $2,981 +$2,518 +84%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $2,710 +$2,894 +107%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $926 +$1,673 +181%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $2,757 +$1,381 +50%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 03 $1,722 −$1,707 -99%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e Jun 03 $405 −$402 -99%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $2,377 +$1,279 +54%
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $21 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $17 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $7,668 1h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $338 36h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $2,850 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 42¢ $894 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 46¢ $353 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $117 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $118 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $118 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $118 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $118 5d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 5d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 5d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 5d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $107 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $45 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $40 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $38 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $80 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,498.09 · official $10,499.42 (match) · 268 history records