Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
83 0x8359…13fb sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$74 (-3%) realized −$69 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate73%59W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$18
14 days−$14
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$43
other 21% −$38
politics 10% −$3
tech 5% +$8
world 4% +$2
crypto 3% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 58% -12.5%
≤30d 41 +3.6% -6.3% 73% 34% -10.9%
≤90d 48 +5.3% -4.7% 75% 38% -8.7%
all 81 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 32% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 32% -11.9%
10% -20.2% 15% -20.3%
15% -27.9% 14% -28.0%
20% -34.9% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses59 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)81 / 98
History coverage221d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? No 64¢ 33¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -88%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $56 −$39 -69%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $84 −$3 -3%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 +$2 +197%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $5 +$1 +12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $5 $0 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$3 -29%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $10 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $105 +$4 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$1 -12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $35 +$5 +14%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $20 +$2 +8%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $40 +$3 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $21 −$11 -51%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $50 +$9 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $110 +$10 +9%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $15 +$4 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 18 $50 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $200 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $20 +$4 +19%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $60 +$13 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem May 10 $20 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? May 10 $20 +$4 +18%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 10 $20 +$8 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 8h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $5 9h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 30h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 2d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes $1 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 57¢ $17 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 89¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 92¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 93¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 91¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $10 6d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 99¢ $70 6d
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 68¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 66¢ $3 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 65¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.36 · official $117.36 (match) · 273 history records