Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:46:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x8359…8a94 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,423now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
politics 18% −$2
sports 17% −$2
world 17% −$1
culture 14% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,423
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage82d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,356 $1,356 −$1 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,328 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $1,322 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electio Apr 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tiger Woods win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 02 $56 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 1m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,304 10m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 18m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 47m
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $954 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $266 1h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,222 2h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,301 17h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 17h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 17h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,264 17h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $15 17h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 100¢ $196 18h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $14 18h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 18h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $902 18h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $294 19h
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $16 19h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 19h
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $107 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $15 72d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 72d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $56 72d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $22 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $11 72d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $29 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,422.53 · official $1,422.53 (match) · 53 history records