Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8351…9beb
sports · 1595 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$17,168 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16,891 · open −$277
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,192
Realized−$16,891
Unrealized−$277
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses638 / 907
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$635
Open positions50
Markets (closed)1545 / 1595
History coverage291d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 50 History 1545 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$197
7 days−$56
14 days+$134
30 days−$1,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $250 $263 +$13 (+5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 44¢ $205 $201 −$4 (-2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $253 $120 −$133 (-53%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 52¢ 57¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 55¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 54¢ 55¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Washington Mystics 51¢ 44¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+62%)
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Golden State Valkyries 59¢ 58¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $57 $61 +$4 (+8%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $52 $58 +$5 (+10%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 72¢ 74¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 12 $152 +$126 +83%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 12 $152 +$111 +73%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $51 +$36 +70%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $102 +$103 +101%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $10 +$14 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $101 +$95 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $71 −$70 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $81 −$80 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5) Jun 10 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 10 $152 −$150 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $101 +$84 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $101 +$95 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $127 +$109 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $152 −$150 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-14.5) Jun 08 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-4.5) Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: New York Liberty (-12.5) Jun 08 $152 −$150 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 +$71 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $101 +$85 +84%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 +$91 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 08 $101 +$91 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 08 $102 +$98 +97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-9.5) Jun 07 $122 +$90 +74%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 06 $122 +$109 +90%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $102 +$107 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$12,788
other 9% −$2,700
politics 2% −$1,404
world 1% +$607
crypto 0% −$521
economics 0% −$150
culture 0% −$163
finance 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 43¢ $51 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $101 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 52¢ $30 1h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 56¢ $41 1h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 59¢ $81 1h
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 51¢ $101 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 56¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 11h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 11h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 16h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 27h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 45¢ $76 27h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 27h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 27h
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $102 27h
Will DR Congo reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +6.7% -3.5% 55% 55% -10.5%
≤30d 197 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 46% -15.8%
≤90d 1004 -46.4% -51.5% 25% 25% -74.6%
all 1545 -5.6% -14.6% 41% 41% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 41% -14.5%
10% -22.8% 41% -22.7%
15% -30.2% 41% -30.1%
20% -37.1% 40% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,192.05 · official $3,192.06 (match) · 3500 history records