Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

83 0x834e…53f4 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$16 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR29%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$24per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +29%

net ROI/market (all)-36.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-29.8%	-36.4%	29%	29%	-20.4%
≤30d	7	-29.8%	-36.4%	29%	29%	-20.4%
≤90d	7	-29.8%	-36.4%	29%	29%	-20.4%
all	7	-29.8%	-36.4%	29%	29%	-20.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.4%	29%	-20.4%
10%	-42.5%	29%	-28.0%
15%	-48.1%	29%	-35.0%
20%	-53.2%	29%	-41.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.68 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$54

Realized−$16

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage6d

Avg bet$24

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	51¢	51¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$25	$24	−$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	25¢	26¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-99%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$15	−$2	-16%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$45	+$23	+51%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	−$2	-11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$25	+$17	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$26	55m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	22¢	$27	57m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$30	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$25	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20	3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5	SELL Under	15¢	$13	3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5	BUY Under	46¢	$20	3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5	BUY Under	17¢	$15	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	78¢	$20	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	36¢	$15	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	15¢	$14	5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	16¢	$15	5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$25	5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$25	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.14 · official $54.14 (match) · 17 history records