Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8349…55d7 sports 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$18 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%85W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$24
14 days+$47
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$23
other 35% +$6
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -9.5% -18.1% 41% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 198 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 42% -8.3%
≤90d 198 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 42% -8.3%
all 198 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 42% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 42% -8.3%
10% -18.4% 41% -17.0%
15% -26.3% 41% -25.1%
20% -33.5% 41% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses85 / 113
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)198 / 204
History coverage15d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Lotte Giants 42¢ 100¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+138%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 53¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card) Christian Rodriguez 63¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $5 +$5 +105%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $5 +$8 +165%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $5 +$14 +276%
Spread: Criciúma EC (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
ITF Los Angeles: Kaylan Bigun vs Andrew Johnson Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Stroemmen IF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Stabaek IF (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Los Angeles: Andrew Johnson vs Spencer Johnson Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Martos: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Joao Domingues Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 43m
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Lotte Giants 42¢ $5 4h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 42¢ $5 5h
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan BUY Karl Kazuma Lee 39¢ $5 16h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 63¢ $5 20h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 24h
Will US Yacoub El Mansour win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 28h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 29¢ $5 28h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 37¢ $5 29h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 37h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 36¢ $5 2d
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 43¢ $5 2d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 39¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic BUY Antonia Ruzic 37¢ $5 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $5 3d
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 41¢ $5 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $5 3d
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 40¢ $5 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 3d
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Spread: Criciúma EC (-1.5) BUY Criciúma EC 24¢ $5 3d
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 26¢ $5 3d
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 43¢ $5 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 29¢ $5 4d
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 38¢ $5 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 40¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 4d
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.92 · official $38.92 (match) · 313 history records