Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:56:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8349…b08a crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$304
crypto 38% −$27
sports 19% +$233
world 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 37% -13.5%
≤30d 54 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 37% -13.5%
≤90d 54 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 37% -13.5%
all 54 -18.9% -26.6% 43% 37% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.6% 37% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.6% 20% -21.8%
15% -40.0% 15% -29.4%
20% -45.9% 9% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 31
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)54 / 60
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$16 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$24 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $84 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $27 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $123 −$19 -15%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $226 −$56 -25%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$10 -24%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $41 +$194 +471%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $84 +$46 +54%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $86 −$55 -63%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $105 +$50 +48%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$125 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $72 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $15 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $35 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $43 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $61 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $12 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $28 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.71 · official $55.71 (match) · 127 history records