Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8345…5cad sports 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,318 (-7%) realized −$1,322 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%112W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$205est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$972
other 21% −$400
world 0% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +170.8% +145.0% 67% 67% -82.3%
≤90d 230 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 47% -16.4%
all 230 -0.4% -9.9% 49% 47% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 47% -16.4%
10% -18.5% 43% -24.4%
15% -26.4% 38% -31.7%
20% -33.6% 34% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$73 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$757
Realized−$1,322
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses112 / 118
Est. fees paid−$205
Open positions23
Markets (closed)230 / 253
History coverage74d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions Calgary Stampeders 45¢ 45¢ $138 $138 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 41¢ 42¢ $112 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 54¢ 55¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $73 $74 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 60¢ 60¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Under 60¢ 60¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Under 47¢ 47¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 66¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Under 70¢ 70¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo Los Angeles Sparks 63¢ 63¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Over 63¢ 63¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Edmonton Elks 37¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-4.5) Bosnia-Herzegovina $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 08 $353 −$347 -99%
Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime? May 28 $6 +$4 +57%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 25 $9 +$52 +556%
CA River Plate leading at halftime? May 24 $183 −$182 -99%
Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5) May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners May 24 $194 −$192 -99%
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5) May 24 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-2.5) May 23 $31 +$81 +265%
Will Auckland FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $40 +$46 +114%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-21? May 22 $29 +$25 +86%
AHL: Grand Rapids Griffins vs. Chicago Wolves May 20 $63 +$38 +60%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 20 $6 +$6 +109%
Club Always Ready vs. Mirassol FC: Draw at halftime? May 20 $14 +$10 +70%
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan May 19 $368 −$364 -99%
Spread: Cusco FC (-1.5) May 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 May 19 $286 −$280 -98%
Alba Berlin vs. SC RASTA Vechta May 19 $208 −$203 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 May 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Independiente del Valle leading at halftime? May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 19 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$28 +140%
FC Volendam vs. Telstar 1963: O/U 4.5 May 17 $319 +$98 +31%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $25 +$29 +119%
Will Saracens win? May 17 $195 +$19 +10%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $290 +$43 +15%
Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $14 +$18 +135%
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-05-15? May 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 13 $247 −$244 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 13 $129 −$127 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 13 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-21? May 12 $107 −$106 -100%
PEC Zwolle vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score May 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-05-16? May 12 $16 −$16 -98%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Argentino vs. Atenas May 12 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $154 −$151 -98%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 11 $128 −$126 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics May 11 $84 +$39 +46%
New York Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 11 $221 +$223 +101%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $142 +$235 +165%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $467 +$49 +10%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $75 +$12 +16%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles May 10 $4 +$2 +65%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $154 −$151 -98%
Will EC Juventude win on 2026-05-17? May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Stade de Reims vs. Pau FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $328 +$212 +65%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-1.5) May 07 $19 +$39 +206%
Londrina EC vs. São Bernardo FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $289 −$288 -99%
Will FK Obolon Kyiv win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 60¢ $60 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 59¢ $30 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $111 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $12 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $5 1h
Spread: Bosnia-Herzegovina (-4.5) BUY Bosnia-Herzegovina $3 1h
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $37 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $18 1h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 1h
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions BUY Calgary Stampeders 45¢ $141 1h
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 41¢ $114 1h
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Edmonton Elks 37¢ $3 1h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $27 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $75 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $12 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $22 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 1h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Los Angeles Sparks 63¢ $7 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $21 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $12 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 51¢ $353 15d
CA River Plate leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $183 31d
Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $6 31d
Spread: CS Cristal (-1.5) BUY CS Cristal 32¢ $2 31d
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $194 31d
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway BUY Norway 15¢ $9 32d
KK Crvena Zvezda vs. Partizan BUY KK Crvena Zvezda 62¢ $129 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $757.14 · official $757.14 (match) · 456 history records