Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8345…dd93 crypto 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10,690 (+4%) realized +$10,690 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate89%373W / 45L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day199.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$2,482
politics 3% −$5,807
world 1% +$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +0.4% -9.2% 90% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 418 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 1% -10.4%
≤90d 418 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 1% -10.4%
all 418 +0.1% -9.5% 89% 1% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover199.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 1% -10.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -19.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,088) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$146 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,690
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses373 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)418 / 418
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$719
Trades / day199.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 418 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $228 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $108 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,497 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2,461 +$34 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $2,520 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $997 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $599 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $454 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $901 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $490 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $781 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $597 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2,076 +$24 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $258 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $3,136 +$13 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $99 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $576 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $828 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $240 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $955 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $3,875 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $234 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $1,219 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $128 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $542 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $1,260 +$6 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,088 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $368 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $118 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $256 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $1,598 +$22 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,098 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,597 +$426 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1,182 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $229 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $128 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $332 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $332 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records