Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x8342…6dc8 sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$160 · open +$94
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%208W / 177L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$676est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$167
7 days−$790
14 days−$1,485
30 days−$837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -7.2% -16.1% 46% 44% -20.6%
≤30d 121 -2.7% -11.9% 49% 45% -14.0%
≤90d 385 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 51% -10.5%
all 385 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 51% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 51% -10.5%
10% -19.0% 49% -19.1%
15% -26.8% 45% -26.9%
20% -34.0% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$106 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$494
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses208 / 177
Est. fees paid−$676
Open positions1
Markets (closed)385 / 386
History coverage79d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner PlayTime 81¢ 100¢ $400 $494 +$94 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $158 −$158 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$17 +8%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $202 +$224 +111%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $199 +$106 +54%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $136 −$33 -24%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $90 −$42 -46%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$116 +76%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 −$197 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$52 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $325 −$321 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$166 +109%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$201 +197%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$94 +93%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$123 +121%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $102 +$131 +128%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$63 +32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$101 +50%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $304 +$164 +54%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $221 +$143 +64%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $174 −$170 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$55 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$8 -8%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $114 +$131 +115%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 −$90 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $192 +$100 +52%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $102 −$67 -66%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $152 +$90 +59%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $102 +$168 +165%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $353 +$139 +40%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $203 +$16 +8%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 03 $404 −$400 -99%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $107 −$106 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 80¢ $201 1h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 82¢ $201 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 65¢ $5 11h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 66¢ $5 11h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $98 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $1 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $24 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $12 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $15 16h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 45¢ $6 16h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 64¢ $200 31h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL x5 Gaming 50¢ $220 31h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 45¢ $203 31h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL x5 Gaming 90¢ $324 32h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL x5 Gaming 90¢ $102 32h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 48¢ $102 32h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner SELL summer bear 100¢ $305 32h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 38¢ $100 32h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 62¢ $10 33h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 65¢ $189 33h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner SELL summer bear 44¢ $102 34h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 53¢ $5 34h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 53¢ $3 35h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 57¢ $5 35h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 57¢ $122 35h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner SELL WinteR SquadronS 22¢ $48 36h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY WinteR SquadronS 40¢ $41 36h
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner BUY WinteR SquadronS 40¢ $42 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $493.64 · official $493.64 (match) · 876 history records