Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x833d…3a04 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$12
politics 29% −$7
tech 7% −$1
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 36 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$998) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage89d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $56 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $1,113 −$1 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 24 $43 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 24 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $1,114 −$1 -0%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $1,115 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,106 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? May 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Venezuela become 51st state? May 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary May 14 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will Maya Joint win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Mar 29 $28 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 57m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 21h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,112 21h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 21h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,087 22h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 22h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,056 22h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 22h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 22h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 22h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $751 22h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 23h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $246 23h
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $998 23h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 41h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,042 41h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 41h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,004 42h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 42h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,112 42h
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 42h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,085 43h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 43h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $817 43h
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records