Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8339…fd49
crypto · 1296 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,356 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,525 · open −$831
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,628
Realized−$1,525
Unrealized−$831
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses560 / 679
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions57
Markets (closed)1239 / 1296
History coverage48d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 57 History 1239 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$336
7 days−$2,100
14 days−$3,681
30 days−$2,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $614 $594 −$20 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 47¢ 100¢ $116 $247 +$130 (+112%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $124 $122 −$2 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $72 $70 −$2 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $67 $64 −$3 (-4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $13 $21 +$8 (+58%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+270%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 1¢ $26 $14 −$12 (-45%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $200 +$128 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $800 +$268 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $499 +$60 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $321 +$377 +117%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $500 +$73 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $300 −$87 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $232 −$20 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $142 −$29 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $176 +$74 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $170 −$34 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $245 +$391 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $120 −$114 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $376 −$217 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$2,483
other 9% +$269
sports 1% −$143
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $114 12m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $300 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $313 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $100 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $50 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $100 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $200 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $100 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $100 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $100 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $180 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 303 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 32% -19.5%
≤30d 1138 -22.4% -29.8% 44% 31% -13.3%
≤90d 1239 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 32% -12.1%
all 1239 -17.3% -25.2% 45% 32% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 32% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 25% -20.5%
15% -38.9% 20% -28.2%
20% -44.9% 16% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,628.05 · official $1,628.29 (match) · 3500 history records