Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8339…d24f other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-16%) realized −$116 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%40W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$146
14 days−$126
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$107
sports 18% −$10
crypto 7% +$54
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -72.0% -74.7% 10% 10% -58.4%
≤30d 43 -61.2% -64.9% 19% 19% -32.8%
≤90d 51 -50.8% -55.5% 25% 25% -31.1%
all 78 -15.6% -23.7% 51% 46% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 46% -18.2%
10% -31.0% 41% -26.1%
15% -37.6% 33% -33.2%
20% -43.7% 27% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$116
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses40 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)78 / 90
History coverage245d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Albany Great Danes vs. Yale Bulldogs Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-08? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-31? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-07? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 12? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-01-10? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Amici Pallacanestro Udinese vs. Pallacanestro Reggiana Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
CB Murcia vs. Basket Zaragoza Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 28 $19 +$63 +328%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $74 +$26 +35%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-04-22? Apr 24 $8 +$5 +65%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 +$12 +82%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $21 −$15 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 35¢ $20 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 8¢ $5 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 58¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 23¢ $19 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AN BUY 20¢ $10 4d
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 4d
Will Rafael Leão score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 10¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $13 28d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 28d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 28d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 28d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 28d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 28d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 28d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 28d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $100 28d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 60d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 64d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 57¢ $5 64d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.87 · official $123.48 · 171 history records