Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8339…caa9 sports 609 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,159 (+5%) realized +$4,667 · open +$492
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%344W / 247L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$386est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$4,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$874
14 days−$3,784
30 days−$2,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$7,813
other 34% +$524
crypto 11% −$3,371
world 0% −$30
tech 0% +$10
finance 0% −$20
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.2% -17.0% 63% 60% +0.9%
≤30d 89 -5.8% -14.7% 64% 58% -19.6%
≤90d 364 -2.1% -11.4% 61% 53% -4.4%
all 591 -4.0% -13.1% 58% 53% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 53% -5.5%
10% -21.4% 46% -14.6%
15% -29.0% 38% -22.8%
20% -36.0% 29% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$96 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$4,132
Realized+$4,667
Unrealized+$492
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses344 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$386
Open positions18
Markets (closed)591 / 609
History coverage161d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,266 +$266 (+27%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 58¢ 96¢ $400 $659 +$259 (+65%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 85¢ 85¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $300 $282 −$18 (-6%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 81¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 59¢ 66¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 43¢ 81¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+90%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $405 +$262 +65%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$52 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $405 +$310 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$27 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$92 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$44 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $403 −$403 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 +$166 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$42 +21%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $407 +$545 +134%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $101 +$68 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $601 +$50 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $354 +$174 +49%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $111 −$111 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $504 +$163 +32%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $202 +$88 +43%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$24 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $910 +$509 +56%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $557 +$380 +68%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $609 −$609 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $605 +$270 +45%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $30 +$17 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $100 +$19 +19%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$120 +40%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $401 −$401 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $403 25m
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 58¢ $405 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $304 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 21¢ $102 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $101 5d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $101 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $407 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 5d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 64¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 75¢ $504 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $304 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 6d
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Yannick Hanfmann 84¢ $201 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $202 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $101 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,131.71 · official $4,136.67 (match) · 1438 history records