Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8338…4e97 crypto 854 markets active 1d ago coverage 72d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,546 (-12%) realized −$4,546 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate74%635W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,160
sports 1% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +5.4% -4.6% 70% 52% -14.0%
≤30d 607 +8.8% -1.6% 76% 53% -11.6%
≤90d 854 +8.0% -2.3% 74% 52% -12.8%
all 854 +8.0% -2.3% 74% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 52% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 32% -21.2%
15% -20.1% 21% -28.8%
20% -28.0% 13% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,546
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses635 / 219
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)854 / 854
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 854 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$54 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $110 −$65 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $46 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $98 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $97 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $77 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $194 −$115 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $46 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $142 −$27 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $64 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $32 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $48 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $57 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $141 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $97 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $73 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $55 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $38 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $12 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $11 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $19 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records