Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8337…1b5b sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$515 (+14%) realized +$520 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%35W / 24L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$106
14 days+$281
30 days+$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$434
other 4% −$75
crypto 3% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -14.8%
≤30d 59 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 59% +1.4%
≤90d 59 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 59% +1.4%
all 59 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 59% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 59% +1.4%
10% -9.8% 56% -8.3%
15% -18.5% 54% -17.1%
20% -26.5% 44% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$48 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$520
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses35 / 24
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage21d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 60¢ 56¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $23 +$9 +40%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $92 +$63 +68%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $92 +$61 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $92 +$63 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $46 −$46 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $46 −$17 -36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $46 −$16 -35%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $182 +$26 +14%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $46 +$42 +91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $92 +$71 +78%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$17 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $22 +$19 +88%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $92 +$84 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $92 −$92 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $92 +$69 +74%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $92 +$91 +99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $46 +$19 +42%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $46 +$54 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $92 +$44 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $92 +$74 +81%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $46 +$29 +63%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $92 +$84 +91%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $69 +$94 +136%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $92 +$69 +74%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $46 +$13 +28%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $46 +$25 +55%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $19 +$34 +186%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $46 −$46 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $12 +$13 +107%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 08 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $69 +$61 +88%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $46 −$4 -8%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $46 +$27 +58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $53 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $46 +$18 +40%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $46 +$37 +81%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $92 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $32 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $23 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $92 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $92 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 66¢ $92 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $92 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $92 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 0¢ $0 27h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 37¢ $29 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $46 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 18¢ $30 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 26¢ $46 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 18¢ $19 28h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $46 32h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 50¢ $46 36h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 54¢ $85 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $90 2d
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 51¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $92 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 52¢ $22 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $92 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 51¢ $92 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $46 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $92 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $92 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 46¢ $46 4d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $46 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.62 · official $84.64 (match) · 135 history records