Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x8333…ef3e other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,462 (+8%) realized +$2,920 · open +$542
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,759per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$16,183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$207
7 days+$42
14 days−$126
30 days+$2,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$3,583
politics 19% +$130
other 10% −$76
sports 4% +$241
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.6% -4.4% 57% 57% -5.7%
≤30d 11 +5.9% -4.1% 64% 64% +9.4%
≤90d 17 +12.1% +1.4% 71% 53% +2.5%
all 18 +11.2% +0.6% 67% 50% +2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 50% +2.3%
10% -9.0% 33% -7.5%
15% -17.8% 22% -16.4%
20% -25.8% 17% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$64 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.65 per $1 lost it wins $9.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$16,183
Realized+$2,920
Unrealized+$542
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions6
Markets (closed)18 / 24
History coverage114d
Avg bet$1,759
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $7,998 $8,129 +$130 (+2%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $4,943 $5,317 +$374 (+8%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $1,816 $1,854 +$38 (+2%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $800 $801 +$1 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $303 +$91 +30%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$54 +118%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$43 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$19 +60%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $102 −$16 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$137 -67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$193 -64%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $1,499 +$204 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $9,584 +$2,518 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 14 $940 +$45 +5%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? May 05 $1,400 +$42 +3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $50 +$67 +134%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 01 $4,461 +$525 +12%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $5,828 +$89 +2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $120 −$17 -14%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $300 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 88¢ $394 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 38h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $74 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $66 3d
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $190 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $111 10d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 15d
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2,900 19d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 19d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 19d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 19d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 19d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,998 19d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,000 19d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,000 20d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 20d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $800 20d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,000 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $12,102 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $986 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,183.47 · official $16,183.47 (match) · 66 history records