trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -11.8% | -20.2% | 0% | 0% | -20.2% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 63% | 11% | -8.6% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 57% | 10% | -15.2% |
| all | 21 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 57% | 10% | -15.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 10% | -15.2% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 5% | -23.3% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 5% | -30.7% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -37.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $617 | $618 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 97¢ | $492 | $482 | −$10 (-2%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 77¢ | 80¢ | $329 | $341 | +$12 (+4%) |
| Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 63¢ | 68¢ | $138 | $148 | +$10 (+7%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 90¢ | 88¢ | $90 | $88 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 70¢ | 76¢ | $77 | $84 | +$7 (+9%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 65¢ | 68¢ | $72 | $74 | +$3 (+4%) |
| Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $19 | $19 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Yes | 50¢ | 54¢ | $12 | $14 | +$1 (+8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $68 | −$8 | -12% |
| Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Jun 13 | $9 | $0 | +2% |
| Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Jun 13 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 12 | $146 | +$4 | +2% |
| XMAQUINA FDV above $40M one day after launch? | May 28 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Citrea FDV above $80M one day after launch? | May 28 | $15 | +$6 | +42% |
| Citrea FDV above $40M one day after launch? | May 28 | $7 | +$1 | +14% |
| XMAQUINA FDV above $20M one day after launch? | May 28 | $38 | $0 | +1% |
| XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? | May 28 | $20 | −$14 | -71% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | May 27 | $195 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 27 | $99 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by December 31, 2027? | May 26 | $392 | +$20 | +5% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by September 30, 2027? | May 26 | $1,011 | +$12 | +1% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2027? | May 26 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by March 31, 2027? | May 26 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by September 30, 2026? | May 26 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Citrea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | May 25 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close o | May 18 | $4 | −$3 | -90% |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? | May 11 | $371 | −$184 | -50% |