Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8330…b3b1 crypto 551 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (551 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$934 (+25%) realized +$1,033 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%264W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day551.2pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$121
sports 24% +$13
other 5% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (551 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 549 -4.7% -13.7% 48% 48% -10.6%
≤30d 549 -4.7% -13.7% 48% 48% -10.6%
≤90d 549 -4.7% -13.7% 48% 48% -10.6%
all 549 -4.7% -13.7% 48% 48% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover551.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 48% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 48% -19.2%
15% -29.5% 48% -27.0%
20% -36.4% 48% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$1,033
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses264 / 285
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)549 / 551
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day551.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 35¢ 34¢ $140 $138 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $87 $118 +$30 (+35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $27 $24 −$2 (-9%)
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 31¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 21m
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $143 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 20¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.16 · official $280.20 (match) · 3500 history records