Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:31:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x832c…1016 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%22W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$3
other 20% −$1
politics 18% −$1
sports 16% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% −$4
tech 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 23 -5.4% -14.4% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 67 +0.3% -9.3% 22% 1% -9.9%
all 82 +0.3% -9.2% 27% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.5%
15% -25.8% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses22 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage485d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $26 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $22 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $21 −$2 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $41 +$3 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $31 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $26 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $32 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $177 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $3 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $4 $0 -10%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $57 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $9 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $6 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $18 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 78¢ $26 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $26 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $18 8d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 9d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $26 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 12d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $28 18d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $27 19d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $0.00 · 275 history records