Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
83 0x832b…3ae1 sports 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 230d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,726 (+14%) realized +$24,607 · open +$1,119
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%219W / 178L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$21,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$936
7 days+$2,505
14 days+$2,972
30 days+$6,178
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$2,991
other 25% +$1,219
politics 16% +$5,246
world 16% +$3,506
crypto 4% +$4,527
economics 4% +$893
culture 2% +$469
tech 2% +$2,101
finance 0% +$273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -30.4% -37.0% 48% 48% +10.8%
≤30d 47 -18.8% -26.5% 53% 45% +9.7%
≤90d 96 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 45% -1.1%
all 397 +4.2% -5.7% 55% 46% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 46% -2.0%
10% -14.7% 38% -11.4%
15% -23.0% 29% -20.0%
20% -30.5% 22% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$180 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$21,325
Realized+$24,607
Unrealized+$1,119
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses219 / 178
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions29
Markets (closed)397 / 423
History coverage231d ⚠
Avg bet$448
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $3,588 $3,970 +$382 (+11%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 47¢ 50¢ $2,350 $2,475 +$125 (+5%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,848 $1,916 +$68 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 61¢ 86¢ $1,221 $1,730 +$509 (+42%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 70¢ 76¢ $1,400 $1,510 +$110 (+8%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $1,279 $1,236 −$43 (-3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 99¢ $742 $1,115 +$372 (+50%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $950 $993 +$43 (+5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 88¢ $840 $875 +$35 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 74¢ 90¢ $487 $595 +$109 (+22%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $445 $492 +$47 (+11%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 80¢ 100¢ $391 $486 +$95 (+24%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $426 $478 +$52 (+12%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $431 $458 +$27 (+6%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $404 $384 −$19 (-5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 63¢ 76¢ $315 $377 +$62 (+20%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $450 $375 −$75 (-17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $309 $370 +$61 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $296 $330 +$34 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 43¢ $250 $215 −$35 (-14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 51¢ 24¢ $410 $196 −$214 (-52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $412 $190 −$222 (-54%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 44¢ 50¢ $132 $152 +$20 (+15%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 57¢ 63¢ $137 $150 +$13 (+9%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 71¢ 78¢ $112 $124 +$12 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Nithya Raman & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2 Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will another pair of candidates advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 19 $1,412 +$182 +13%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $162 −$162 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $335 +$165 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,633 +$3,055 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $858 +$342 +40%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 +$34 +53%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $385 +$115 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,120 +$320 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $560 +$172 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $351 −$349 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $311 −$309 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $144 −$120 -83%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $301 −$55 -18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $138 +$62 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $225 +$75 +33%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $633 +$367 +58%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $78 +$122 +156%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $259 −$259 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $944 +$56 +6%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $462 −$262 -57%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $988 +$12 +1%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $1,300 +$872 +67%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $910 +$90 +10%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 05 $130 −$130 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $2,201 +$2,282 +104%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $892 +$608 +68%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,195 +$760 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,055 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $624 −$624 -100%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $151 +$49 +32%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1,022 +$178 +17%
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 30 $3,225 +$209 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 30 $240 +$60 +25%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $249 +$51 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 23 $74 −$74 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $380 −$180 -47%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $289 +$210 +73%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $233 +$752 +323%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? May 16 $1,600 +$276 +17%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 13 $323 −$323 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $435 28m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $3 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $4 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $53 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $191 29m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $710 31m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $141 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $215 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 83¢ $143 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $184 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $409 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $56 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $880 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $335 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $1,594 18h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $41 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $18 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $9 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $11 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $2 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $100 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $32 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $10 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $18 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $8 20h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 50¢ $1 20h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Qatar 10¢ $10 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $260 20h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $48 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,325.15 · official $21,314.06 (match) · 3500 history records