Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
83 0x832b…5c91 other 209 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,617 (+1%) realized +$4,482 · open −$865
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate93%116W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,700per market
Trades / day47.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$85,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 40% +$16,921
other 21% +$6,877
economics 20% +$2,105
finance 8% +$3,041
politics 8% +$2,296
world 3% +$1,266
sports 1% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +24.6% +12.7% 70% 15% -4.6%
≤30d 72 +45.3% +31.4% 89% 19% +0.9%
≤90d 125 +33.3% +20.6% 93% 20% +3.0%
all 125 +33.3% +20.6% 93% 20% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.6% 20% +3.0%
10% +9.1% 14% -6.9%
15% ← realistic here -1.4% 13% -15.9%
20% -11.1% 10% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +49% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$49 · ×5.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×76.56 per $1 lost it wins $76.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$85,052
Realized+$4,482
Unrealized−$865
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses116 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions94
Markets (closed)125 / 209
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$1,700
Trades / day47.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 98¢ 100¢ $9,068 $9,248 +$180 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 94¢ 96¢ $6,365 $6,552 +$187 (+3%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 98¢ $6,019 $6,104 +$84 (+1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $3,521 $3,548 +$27 (+1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $3,036 $3,080 +$45 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 98¢ 97¢ $2,972 $2,945 −$27 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 86¢ $2,743 $2,779 +$35 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,497 $2,538 +$41 (+2%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,506 $2,525 +$19 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,442 $2,480 +$37 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,289 $2,306 +$17 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 97¢ 98¢ $2,011 $2,043 +$32 (+2%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 90¢ 93¢ $1,740 $1,796 +$57 (+3%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1,640 $1,730 +$90 (+5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 83¢ $1,889 $1,666 −$222 (-12%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $1,629 $1,643 +$14 (+1%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,443 $1,517 +$73 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,455 $1,454 −$1 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 80¢ $1,578 $1,362 −$215 (-14%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $1,268 $1,320 +$51 (+4%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 81¢ $1,080 $1,215 +$135 (+12%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1,195 $1,207 +$13 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $1,170 $1,187 +$17 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,155 $1,160 +$5 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $1,084 $1,104 +$21 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,290 +$31 +2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $3,848 +$266 +7%
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $434 +$66 +15%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,677 +$811 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 21 $932 +$38 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 21 $1,430 +$38 +3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,464 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $977 −$2 -0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Jun 19 $482 +$3 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $3,896 +$82 +2%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $6,386 +$110 +2%
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $791 +$30 +4%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 m Jun 17 $98 +$3 +3%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $981 −$4 -0%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 16 $13 +$89 +710%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $101 +$1 +1%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1,238 +$101 +8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $73 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $788 +$37 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO da Jun 12 $460 +$40 +9%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $552 +$516 +94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,966 +$29 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,060 +$86 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6,585 +$366 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $2,442 +$45 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $3,052 +$111 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $2,826 +$65 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $6,090 +$337 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $14,780 +$283 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $15,665 +$345 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $7,260 +$322 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $6,321 +$101 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $3,539 +$187 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $3,107 +$1,126 +36%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $1,077 +$36 +3%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $457 +$505 +110%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $7,065 +$3,394 +48%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5,078 +$3,892 +77%
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6,707 +$221 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2,190 +$46 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $983 +$17 +2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $4,809 +$1,365 +28%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $681 +$111 +16%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $3,054 +$59 +2%
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $199 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 31m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr SELL No 100¢ $462 1h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 2h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 97¢ $2 5h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 97¢ $116 5h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 97¢ $9 5h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 97¢ $9 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 6h
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $156 6h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $497 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $180 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $486 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $490 9h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $21 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $226 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $45 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $18 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $0 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $202 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $55 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $251 10h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $503 10h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 62¢ $310 11h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $425 11h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $267 11h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $163 11h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $435 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $56 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $139 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85,052.42 · official $85,052.47 (match) · 3500 history records