Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
83 0x8328…0a5c sports 433 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$500 (+2%) realized +$503 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%181W / 250L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$843
14 days+$1,109
30 days+$1,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,012
other 5% −$473
politics 1% −$44
crypto 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +116.7% +96.0% 61% 61% +94.6%
≤30d 39 +73.7% +57.2% 59% 59% +54.3%
≤90d 222 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 43% +2.9%
all 431 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 42% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 42% -7.6%
10% -20.3% 41% -16.4%
15% -28.0% 41% -24.5%
20% -35.1% 41% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$44 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$503
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses181 / 250
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions2
Markets (closed)431 / 433
History coverage253d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 431 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 40¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 181 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$23 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$35 +60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +303%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 +$17 +42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$41 +601%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $12 +$44 +360%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $23 +$21 +93%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $99 +$168 +170%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $119 +$391 +328%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $51 +$301 +589%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 10 $125 −$123 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$99 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 +$198 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 +$167 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $45 +$61 +137%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $50 +$101 +202%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 30 $50 −$49 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $75 +$70 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $139 −$136 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $107 +$99 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $107 +$100 +94%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $120 +$142 +118%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 22 $126 −$124 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $50 +$50 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $40 +$41 +101%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 20 $50 −$49 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 20 $61 +$57 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $123 +$245 +198%
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? May 19 $26 −$4 -16%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $109 +$176 +161%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 16 $40 +$38 +93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $23 +$35 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $107 −$105 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) May 10 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $23 35m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 11h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 26h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 32h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 35h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $57 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $12 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $268 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $510 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $40 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $79 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 5d
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $352 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.22 · official $25.50 (match) · 743 history records