Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x831f…cc50 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$400 (-14%) realized −$401 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$84
14 days−$269
30 days−$383
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$490
other 1% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.0% -11.3% 25% 25% -26.5%
≤30d 60 +2.6% -7.1% 38% 38% -22.6%
≤90d 68 -2.8% -12.1% 37% 37% -22.9%
all 68 -2.8% -12.1% 37% 37% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 37% -22.9%
10% -20.5% 35% -30.3%
15% -28.2% 35% -37.0%
20% -35.2% 34% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$41 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$401
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 43
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage34d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 49¢ 50¢ $51 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris Jun 25 $126 −$75 -60%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $53 −$52 -99%
Tabur vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $50 +$158 +317%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$73 +226%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $75 −$73 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $45 +$47 +105%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $110 −$109 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $45 −$45 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $19 +$21 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $50 +$43 +86%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $33 +$63 +188%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $39 −$38 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $33 −$33 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$70 +344%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $120 −$118 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $11 +$23 +197%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $5 +$9 +180%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $172 +$65 +38%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $29 −$29 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $33 +$36 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $29 +$49 +172%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $47 +$46 +98%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $19 +$38 +197%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $26 −$26 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $39 +$26 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $26 +$33 +129%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $105 −$104 -98%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Britt Du Pree vs Joanna Garland Jun 06 $14 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $25 +$50 +197%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 06 $24 +$95 +388%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $23 −$23 -98%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $11 +$13 +124%
Makarska: Akasha Urhobo vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $34 +$51 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $96 −$95 -99%
Little Rock: Colton Smith vs Michael Mmoh Jun 01 $58 +$44 +76%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $26 −$26 -97%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch May 31 $36 −$36 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $118 −$116 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $52 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Yi Zhou 51¢ $100 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 51¢ $6 12h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Yi Zhou vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 51¢ $21 12h
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 65¢ $53 12h
Tabur vs. Mochizuki: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 54¢ $25 12h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 15¢ $24 18h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $25 19h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $103 5d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 5d
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 35¢ $48 6d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $22 13d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $22 13d
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 47¢ $50 13d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 52¢ $110 13d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 26¢ $30 13d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $1 14d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $1 14d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $25 14d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $0 14d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 31¢ $17 14d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 32¢ $20 14d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 30¢ $9 14d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 30¢ $2 14d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 30¢ $11 14d
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 57¢ $39 14d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $19 14d
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Rinky Hijikata 31¢ $19 14d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova BUY Magda Linette 53¢ $50 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.48 · official $51.48 (match) · 140 history records