Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:04:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x831a…e8e6 other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$182 (-10%) realized −$173 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$211
7 days−$187
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$174
sports 33% −$22
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.7%
≤30d 23 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.7%
≤90d 23 -30.7% -37.3% 26% 26% -33.7%
all 29 -24.0% -31.3% 38% 21% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 21% -31.4%
10% -37.8% 21% -38.0%
15% -43.8% 17% -44.0%
20% -49.3% 3% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$960
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)29 / 35
History coverage585d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $568 $565 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 73¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$2 -12%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 +$122 +596%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $21 +$8 +36%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Feb 02 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on October 21? Nov 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 21? Nov 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Nov 13 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $269 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $301 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $18 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 3h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 28h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 28h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 29h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $959.52 · official $959.52 (match) · 64 history records