Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
83 0x831a…43e0 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,317 (+9%) realized +$2,317 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +145% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +113% what you keep after slip
Net edge+113%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate90%76W / 8L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$313per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,014
7 days+$1,068
14 days+$3,704
30 days+$3,836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$2,040
other 24% +$1,021
politics 1% −$131
world 1% +$330
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+121.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 17% -0.5%
≤30d 37 +322.0% +281.8% 95% 22% +3.2%
≤90d 84 +145.1% +121.7% 90% 14% -5.4%
all 84 +145.1% +121.7% 90% 14% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +121.7% 14% -5.4%
10% +100.5% 11% -14.4%
15% +81.1% 11% -22.7%
20% +63.4% 10% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +145% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +282% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$181 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,317
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses76 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage70d
Avg bet$313
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 27 $5,241 +$1,012 +19%
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez Jun 25 $24 +$2 +9%
Zheng vs. Wang: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $5,150 +$50 +1%
Will Rune Eaters Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 23 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Mentality Monsters Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 23 $43 $0 +1%
Will LGD Gaming Qualify to The International 2026 Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $3 +$341 +9886%
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $4 +$395 +9890%
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $11 +$950 +8264%
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $14 +$947 +6757%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $28 +$3 +10%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Completed Match: Swan/Vidmanova vs Brooks/Rajecki Jun 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Ilkley (Doubles): Swan/Vidmanova vs Brooks/Rajecki Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Brooks/Rajecki (-1.5) vs Swan/Vidmanova (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Swan/Vidmanova vs Brooks/Rajecki Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Swan/Vidmanova vs Brooks/Rajecki Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Swan/Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Brooks/Rajecki (+1.5) Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Swan/Vidmanova vs. Brooks/Rajecki: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Guevara vs Svendsen Jun 11 $483 +$5 +1%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $336 +$153 +46%
Boston Guard vs. California Palms Jun 07 $32 +$1 +3%
Boston Cannons vs. Maryland Whipsnakes Jun 06 $200 +$4 +2%
New York Atlas vs. Denver Outlaws Jun 05 $1 +$99 +9612%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $229 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 03 $139 −$136 -97%
Carpentier vs. Lin: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 01 $63 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 1 Winner May 30 $0 $0 +3233%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Kecmanovic/Kokkinakis vs Droguet/G May 26 $8 +$2 +21%
Roland Garros ATP: Completed Match: Cash/Glasspool vs Arneodo/Polmans May 26 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs DFX Peek (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Sé May 25 $297 +$3 +1%
ITF Klagenfurt: Britt Du Pree vs Oana Georgeta Simion May 20 $261 +$1 +0%
Hamburg European Open: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Arthur Gea May 18 $15 $0 +1%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 8.5 Total Corners May 12 $471 −$179 -38%
Monteiro vs. Andrade: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 12 $438 +$1 +0%
Monteiro vs. Andrade: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 May 12 $418 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Conten May 11 $1,520 −$44 -3%
Map Handicap: m1x (-1.5) vs Dripmen (+1.5) May 11 $903 +$69 +8%
Rainbow Six Siege: Good Intentions vs Fight Club 1 - Game 2 Winner May 09 $531 +$38 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: For The Love Of The Game vs Owned (BO1) - R6 North May 08 $23 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $6,253 59m
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $5,241 1h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez SELL Joaquin Aguilar 67¢ $26 42h
Piracicaba: Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Estevez BUY Joaquin Aguilar 60¢ $24 42h
Zheng vs. Wang: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5,150 2d
Will Rune Eaters Qualify to The International 2026 BUY No 99¢ $74 3d
Will Mentality Monsters Qualify to The International 2026 BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
Will LGD Gaming Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 99¢ $198 6d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $289 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 100¢ $289 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 100¢ $110 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $55 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over $2 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under $3 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under $3 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under $1 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under $1 10d
Messerli vs. Zhytelna: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under $0 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $641 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $641 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 23.5 SELL Under 99¢ $300 10d
Paskauskas vs. Seye: Match O/U 22.5 SELL Under 99¢ $300 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 380 history records