Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
83 0x8319…b2ef other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+8%) realized +$72 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$55
crypto 17% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.3% +1.6% 100% 50% +4.6%
≤30d 6 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 33% -2.7%
≤90d 6 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 33% -2.7%
all 6 -8.0% -16.8% 83% 33% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 33% -2.7%
10% -24.8% 17% -12.0%
15% -32.0% 0% -20.5%
20% -38.7% 0% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage22d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $214 $207 −$7 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $75 $73 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 24 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $170 +$46 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $87 +$4 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$25 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $112 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $75 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $75 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $139 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $139 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $90 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $90 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $87 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $77 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $77 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $80 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 78¢ $36 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $115 21d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $112 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.09 · official $280.09 (match) · 17 history records