Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:01:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8319…fea0
other · 8 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$36 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$37 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 5 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$37
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 +$3 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% −$40
tech 14% +$3
crypto 6% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $15 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 24h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $12 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -59.7% -63.5% 33% 33% -74.0%
≤30d 3 -59.7% -63.5% 33% 33% -74.0%
≤90d 3 -59.7% -63.5% 33% 33% -74.0%
all 3 -59.7% -63.5% 33% 33% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.5% 33% -74.0%
10% -67.0% 0% -76.5%
15% -70.2% 0% -78.7%
20% -73.1% 0% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.62 · official $32.62 (match) · 10 history records