Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x8310…c875 other 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,069 (+1%) realized +$2,085 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%120W / 103L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,467per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$322est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 117d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$8,595
crypto 8% −$5,769
sports 7% −$3,287
world 2% −$404
finance 0% +$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -19.6% -27.3% 47% 47% -27.7%
≤30d 82 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 49% -22.7%
≤90d 217 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 49% -8.7%
all 223 -9.5% -18.2% 54% 50% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 50% -8.5%
10% -26.0% 38% -17.2%
15% -33.1% 29% -25.2%
20% -39.7% 20% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,709) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$643 vs −$755 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$2,085
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses120 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$322
Open positions1
Markets (closed)223 / 224
History coverage117d
Avg bet$1,467
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 48¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $403 −$110 -27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $232 −$230 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 +$211 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$71 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $405 +$270 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $252 +$63 +25%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $609 −$600 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $258 −$107 -42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$112 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $503 +$114 +23%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $505 +$239 +47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,434 −$316 -13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $306 −$147 -48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $507 +$419 +83%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,605 +$156 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $537 −$430 -80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,153 +$643 +56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,709 +$215 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $506 −$500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $610 +$693 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $508 +$579 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $504 +$107 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $502 +$84 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $2,009 +$170 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1,618 −$1,600 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $509 −$59 -12%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $505 −$458 -91%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $1,011 −$84 -8%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $1,008 +$348 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,004 +$86 +9%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,006 +$124 +12%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $1,005 −$994 -99%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $608 +$421 +69%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2,010 +$125 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $707 +$352 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,007 +$307 +30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,012 +$487 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1,006 +$83 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,188 +$140 +12%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $62 +$358 +581%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $293 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $118 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 8h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $403 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $232 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $615 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 97¢ $315 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $304 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 38¢ $151 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $304 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $258 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $616 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $744 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $503 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $523 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $811 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.62 · official $83.62 (match) · 506 history records