Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8310…ac48 crypto 1145 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$131 (-3%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%458W / 685L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$81
14 days+$126
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$86
other 28% −$102
crypto 20% −$155
world 0% −$16
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -7.1% -15.9% 47% 41% -3.6%
≤30d 353 -15.5% -23.6% 41% 36% -7.3%
≤90d 938 -16.7% -24.6% 40% 36% -13.0%
all 1143 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 36% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -13.9%
10% -32.5% 32% -22.2%
15% -39.1% 28% -29.7%
20% -45.0% 24% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses458 / 685
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1143 / 1145
History coverage152d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1143 Trades
no open positions (147 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$19 +127%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $165 +$73 +45%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $1 +$8 +786%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +24%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +22%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $155 +$31 +20%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $7 −$6 -83%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $75 −$74 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +60%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$8 -81%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +97%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$2 +83%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +146%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$11 +100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 +$1 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$9 +152%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 74¢ $26 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $11 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $9 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 69¢ $155 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 11¢ $1 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $1 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $32 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 19h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 20h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 20h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $1 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 88¢ $1 21h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 82¢ $1 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 22h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $1 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $135 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $1 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $12 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3135 history records