Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
83 0x830d…0dc1 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 395d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$2
sports 24% +$10
economics 23% −$2
politics 21% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +20.8% +9.3% 100% 50% +16.2%
≤30d 2 +20.8% +9.3% 100% 50% +16.2%
≤90d 8 +5.2% -4.8% 62% 12% -4.8%
all 39 +1.1% -8.5% 46% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

395d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage395d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 +$12 +42%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on April 10? Apr 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? Mar 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in April 2026? Mar 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 1? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? Dec 31 $13 $0 +1%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 25? Dec 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Nov 25 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $780 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 18? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Nov 17 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Nov 17 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 17 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Sep 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rennes win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Aug 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $275 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th May 30 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 26 $284 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 16 $300 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $285 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 1h
Spread: Sabres (-1.5) BUY Canadiens 70¢ $28 27d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 53d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $6 53d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY No 100¢ $7 53d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $45 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $14 68d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $45 68d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 80d
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 80d
Will Azerbaijan win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes $0 80d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $10 80d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 97d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in April 2026? SELL Yes $0 97d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $9 97d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $37 105d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $12 105d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $50 105d
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 136d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $15 136d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 166d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $30 186d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $5 186d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $20 186d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $50 186d
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 December 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $8 186d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $779 202d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 202d
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $400 202d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.93 · official $23.93 (match) · 109 history records