Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
83 0x830c…675d sports 75 markets active 8h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$78 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate58%43W / 31L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$495est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$1,224
14 days−$658
30 days−$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$505
other 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -13.5% -21.7% 50% 33% -17.7%
≤30d 74 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 47% -10.4%
≤90d 74 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 47% -10.4%
all 74 -0.5% -10.0% 58% 47% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 47% -10.4%
10% -18.6% 39% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 24% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$110 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses43 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$495
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage27d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 28¢ 26¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $87 +$20 +23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $31 +$18 +59%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$10 -16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $97 −$13 -14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,535 −$858 -56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $693 −$91 -13%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$5 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $203 −$97 -48%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $529 −$320 -60%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $409 +$24 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $561 −$69 -12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$51 -50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$96 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $816 +$71 +9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $205 −$8 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $303 +$84 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $459 +$27 +6%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $223 +$84 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $204 +$146 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $817 +$118 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $610 +$292 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $173 −$170 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$111 -73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$27 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,275 +$48 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$67 -66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $102 −$23 -22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $403 +$85 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $510 −$414 -81%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $456 −$196 -43%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $203 +$94 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $423 +$12 +3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $405 −$16 -4%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $202 +$63 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $655 +$187 +29%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $916 −$232 -25%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $272 +$75 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 −$24 -12%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $201 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $202 +$96 +48%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$10 +100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $136 +$29 +21%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $201 +$38 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $101 +$33 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $41 −$2 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $31 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 41¢ $23 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 42¢ $23 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 22¢ $26 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 15¢ $17 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 26¢ $31 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 43¢ $44 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 29¢ $31 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 70¢ $48 28h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $31 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $10 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 71¢ $88 30h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $51 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 19¢ $84 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $97 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 17¢ $45 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 24¢ $205 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 57¢ $248 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 22¢ $401 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 21¢ $386 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $408 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 51¢ $172 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 30¢ $204 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 26¢ $124 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 41¢ $204 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 8¢ $56 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 7¢ $51 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 56¢ $452 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.39 · official $28.39 (match) · 285 history records