Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:19:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8306…f98b other 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 488d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$30 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$10
sports 25% −$7
politics 18% −$14
world 12% +$3
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 11 +7.9% -2.4% 36% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 21 +4.0% -5.9% 24% 5% -9.8%
all 84 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

488d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage488d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $160 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $176 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $23 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $179 −$4 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $179 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $167 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$1 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$5 +82%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 26 $49 +$3 +5%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 25 $104 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $109 −$5 -5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,013 −$10 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $180 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,062 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $969 −$10 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $2,134 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $124 −$2 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $971 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 $0 -4%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $2 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $2 $0 +1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 18 $6 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 25 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31? Jul 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 05 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $60 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $160 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $160 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $48 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $176 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $176 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $160 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $146 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $12 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $175 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $179 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $163 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $179 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $136 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $22 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $144 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.30 · official $58.28 (match) · 226 history records